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Avian influenza pandemic

AUTHOR: Robert Marks   DATE: 08.12.05   ISSUE 3, 2005

No-one knows, of course, when a pandemic will strike, and how severe it will be, but in my view some form of pandemic is inevitable.

"Any pandemic, when it eventuates, will have a major impact on the economy." Professor Robert Marks

On average there are three pandemics each century, the most severe of which was the 1918 Spanish influenza which killed at least 20 million people worldwide and — in that year alone — had a negative economic impact of perhaps 2 p.c. of global GDP or US$800 billion in today’s terms.

Given the uncertainties, and the potential worst-case scenario of an avian flu outbreak, now is the time for organisations to go through a thorough exercise in business continuity planning and to examine how their operations will be affected.

This should involve not only examining their own operations, and issues such as the potential shortages of materials and the disruption of supply chains, but also talking to suppliers and corporate customers about their own preparations.

Widespread business continuity planning would have two ameliorating impacts. The first would be to lessen any damage a pandemic will cause the wider economy, while the second is on the level of an individual organisation’s perceived comparative advantage.

Just as some stockbroking houses have begun issuing “buy” recommendations on companies — such as vaccine producers — who would undoubtedly profit from any outbreak, so the market will start to factor in a premium for those organisations which have thorough continuity plans in place.

Any plan is dependent on the nature of an organisation and its activities, but some continuity measures would include getting employees to, as much as possible, work from home — a policy with potential implications for IT requirements.

At the same time, organisations should limit employees’ travel and — in the case of companies with international operations — take steps to get them out of more susceptible countries.

Now is the time for organisations to go through a thorough exercise in business continuity planning and to examine how their operations will be affected.

Companies should be prepared to protect their core activities in the hope of prolonging their sustainability, and must plan for between 25 and 40 percent of their staff being absent on any given day as a result of the disease. This could last for weeks.

Where possible, organisations should stock up on supplies against the possibility that supply lines will be disrupted and, if they can, make plans to continue operating with sewerage, water, and electricity services interrupted.

If possible, they should vaccinate employees, even though that is unlikely to be 100 percent effective.

There are also number of measures that can be taken to limit infection in the workplace. Air circulation and filtration systems, for example, should be reviewed, work hours could be staggered to limit the size of gatherings, and masks can be provided. For customers and partners, the range of self-service and online options can be expanded to minimise face-to-face contact. Hand-washing should be encouraged.

Organisations will also have to get used to a different policy on sick leave. Employees should be encouraged to stay home when they are ill, and some organisations will have to review their policy on sick pay, to reduce the incentive to clock on even when sick.

This might also conflict with the Government’s new industrial relations policy, which mandates that to justify a sick day employees need a medical certificate from a doctor or medical worker. In the event of an avian flu pandemic, such a stipulation would be unwise, not least for the health professionals.

Some continuity measures would include getting employees to, as much as possible, work from home.

Any pandemic, when it eventuates, will have a major impact on the economy, and some businesses will lose while others, ironically, will profit from the disaster.

Products such as medical masks, wipes and hand-washing liquids will be in demand, as will long-life foodstuffs. Off-grid energy supplies, ionisers to destroy air-borne pathogens and the bio-tech industry also stand to profit.

The likely rise in telecommuting also spells an opportunity for telecoms and broadband suppliers and equipment makers.

On the downside, the tourism, travel and hospitality industries will suffer, as will those industries where people gather in large groups, such as retailing, casinos, theme parks and mass entertainment such as cinemas and sport.

Employees should be encouraged to stay home when they are ill, and some organisations will have to review their policy on sick pay.

Life and re-insurance companies will also be hit, property values will be likely to fall and, of course, the poultry industry and its suppliers will be the most affected of all.

These likely impacts are foreseeable and undeniable, but with thorough business continuity planning the impacts on firms and their employees could be lessened, as long as we start planning now.